Making money on Blackjack

Posted by Dr. Yan Lyansky on 25th Oct 2021

In my young 20's I came up with a concept to win at blackjack in casino's. I would go into the casino with $5000+, and I would start by betting $1. If I win I would pocket the $1,and start over with another $1. If I lose I would bet $2, hence if I win I would win $1 and start over. However if I lost I would bet $4. Again if I win I will pocket $1 and start over, if I lose I would bet $8. Essentially doubling the next hand until I win. Once I win I would win a $1. I would need to lose 12 hands in a row to lose everything, the probability is (1/2)^12=.00024 which is essentially an impossible event. Therefore I concluded that we have found a way to win $1. Repeat 5000 times to win $5000.

I thought this was a good idea. However I ran a computer simulation and I lost all my money 70% of the time, while attempting to double my $5000 . How is this possible? I will post the answer later.