Lottery: winning or losing?
Posted by Dr. Yan Lyansky on 25th Oct 2021
In 2008 I lived in Hatteras Island, and I saw a young girl holding her money tightly, it was all the money she had. We were both in line at the Food Lion, she was ahead of my. Upon her turn she bout $50-$60 in lottery tickets, I was really upset. I knew she had no more money, and I knew she was going to lose at least 50% of her investment in the lottery. I wanted to tell her to save her hard earned money, but I didn't believe she was going to listen to a stranger. So I kept quiet....I didn't know what to do.
Last week a gentleman asked for an algorithm to win the lottery. He assumed past numbers effect the future numbers. They don't, the past and future are independent. Therefore there is no algorithm ( assuming the balls are the same volume & weight ). Hence the expected value for simple lotteries is negative 50 cents, in other words a player will lose 50 cents long term on average for each time they play. This is not a "fair" game. The more sophisticated lotteries have a lower expected value, hence you will lose more over time.
I can not understand how local governments allow and encourage these games. Many people suffer due to the monies lost in these rigged games of chance.